000 AXNT20 KNHC 031137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N74W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N33W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 08N37W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N56W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 17W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEKEND HAS CLEARED ALL THE GULF FROM PRECIPITATION AND A SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN US AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. WITH THIS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES E ENHANCING THE E TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO 20N71W TO 14N84W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...10- 15 KT TRADES PREVAIL. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-14W W OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO 15N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 66W-68W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER HAITI. THIS FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 MN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 20N71W TO 33N59W TO 48N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N58W TO 23N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N40W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 12N35W TO 07N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 33W-38W. A STATIONARY 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 56W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA