000 AXNT20 KNHC 030531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N74W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THIS...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N36W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N56W. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 18W-39W AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 40W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEKEND HAS CLEARED ALL THE GULF FROM PRECIPITATION AND A SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN US AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. WITH THIS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES E ENHANCING THE E TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO 20N73W...15N83W...16N89W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...10-15 KT TRADES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N83W TO 10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15W BETWEEN 80W-84W WHICH IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO 14N66W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W- 68W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WINWARD PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AFFECTING NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 20N72W TO 30N62W TO 46N63W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N67W TO 26N70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N61W TO 21N63W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N38W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 36W- 43W. A STATIONARY 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 56W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA