000 AXNT20 KNHC 022346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N71W TO 11N71W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 16 N. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N30W TO 8N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 18W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 45W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL THE GULF EXCEPT THE SW BASIN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W TO 21N97W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 24N98W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN AND UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN. DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING FROM THE NW BASIN TO THE SE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SE CONUS WITH E TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W N OF 15N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 18N78W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. TO THE S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N82W TO 11N82W. THIS TROUGH IS IN AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 16N65W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER S AMERICA. THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W AND MERGE WITH THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH AND FRONT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT OVER THE WINWARD PASSAGE IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE NW COAST OF HAITI. THIS FRONT IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR HAITI TONIGHT WHILE A W MOVING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM PUERTO RICO. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 25N67W TO 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N69W TO 26N72W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...W TO WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOME NW AT 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N65W AND EXTENDS TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC. FARTHER EAST...A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 57W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 31N55W TO 20N68W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO