000 AXNT20 KNHC 021740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EDT SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 70W FROM VENEZUELA TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W 9N30W 7N38W 6N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 17W-27W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 27W-40W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 7N-9N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC BUT REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF WITH THE TAIL END REMAINING IN THE SW GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN ALONG 20N95W TO 22N97W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER S INDIANA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHIFTING FROM W TO E AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 18N83W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW HAITI AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 20N73W OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER N COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S AND EXTENDS FROM 14N82W ALONG 11N82W TO 9N81W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N75W TO 12N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N63W THROUGH THE ANGUILLA PASSAGE TO 15N65W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING STRONG NW SURFACE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN ON WED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS N PORTION OF HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE COLD FRONT OVER E CUBA WILL MOVE TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE SAME COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N69W THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PRECEDES THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N63W ALONG 24N68W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NW HAITI AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 24N64W TO BEYOND 32N54W ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N39W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 32W-45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH BOUT 320 NM SW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN FROM 32N58W 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW