000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N66W TO 20N74W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W TO 22N77W. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO- WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 18 FEET TO 22 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA THAT ALSO HAS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N59W 19N62W 15N64W. IT REPRESENTS WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW-CURRENT 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 8N30W AND 6N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N24W 5N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 10N24W 8N27W 7N30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...SWEEPING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... GUATEMALA...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 24N70W AND 20N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES ALONG 20N75W 19N80W...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 23N75W 20N86W...CURVING TO 22N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 21N72W 17N77W...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N64W 21N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA... JAMAICA...AND HAITI...TO WESTERN JAMAICA...AND 10N83W ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB... KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COMES FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 60W/61W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...0.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.18 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND EVEN PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE 20N75W-19N80W-EASTERN HONDURAS. STATIONARY FRONT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BARAHONA TO PUNTA CANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED ALSO IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE...THEN BECOMING AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF SO. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 18N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N44W AND 11N50W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 18N38W CENTER TO 32N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 44W...AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1032 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N43W 30N48W AND 24N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...NOT COUNTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 22N59W 19N62W 15N64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT