000 AXNT20 KNHC 012351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXCEEDING 35 KT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST N OF 29N THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 18 HOURS THROUGH SUN MORNING OVER WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 66W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20-24 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N82W TO 9N82W MOVING W AT 10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION OF THE WAVE. SSMI TPW SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO 8N19N. THE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AT 8N19W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 6N40W TO 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N36W TO 7N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W TO 23N87W TO 25N95W. DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORT THIS COLD FRONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. DRY AIR WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH 19N82W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 17N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JAMAICA...W CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 18N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W. STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC TO 29N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH PRE FRONTAL ASCENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N61W TO 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. FAIR WEATHER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE EAST OF 50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 30N65W TO HISPANIOLA WHILE MERGING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 28N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 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