000 AXNT20 KNHC 011808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG N-NW WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXCEEDING 35 KT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST N OF 28N THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 18 HOURS THROUGH SUN MORNING OVER WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 65W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20-22 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W S OF 15N IS MOVING W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AS A TROUGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W 18N61W TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N58W TO 15N61W. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 18N...MOVING W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 10 KNOTS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FOUND S OF 15N W OF 78W. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 9N17W WHICH EXTENDS W TO 09N38W AND WSW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-28W. RANDOM SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBS OVER FLORIDA SHOW A MARKED CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STRONG FRONT. WITH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS VERY STRONG GUSTS. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS IS MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NE. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL REACH 10-12 FT TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE AREA DUE TO A WEAKER COLD FRONT EXITING THE SE GULF...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AND INTERACTION WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE ABOUT 2-4 FT IN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN SLOW AS IT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS SUN MORNING. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT AS BUILDING HIGH PRES TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF AREA. TRADES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL MAKE A COMEBACK AS WELL. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH E CUBA AND HAITI SUN. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE. A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO NW CUBA TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLANTIC OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. NW SWELL GENERATED BY THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PUSH SE ALONG THE BAHAMAS REACHING CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI BY LATE MON. MEANWHILE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL WEST ATLANTIC MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL