000 AXNT20 KNHC 301733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE BUT ALSO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N28W TO 10N40W TO 09N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 27N97W TO 29N83W. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS MOMENT...WHICH IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS FROM 28N85W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING CONVECTION...THIS TIME IT IS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 23N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AND WITH HIGHER SPEEDS NEAR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA...WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENING RAPIDLY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF 80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO PRESENT N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHICH ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 13N. E-NE FLOW AT 10-15 KT AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA (FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE). THIS IS DUE TO A MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...IS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N71W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...WITH CENTER NEAR 20N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 24N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS E OF THESE FEATURES FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 64W-56W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 32N28W INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT ALONG THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WHICH IS LOCATED FROM 28N58W TO 25N47W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA