000 AXNT20 KNHC 281803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW TO NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N62W TO 9N64W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 9N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 9N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS DIGGING SE TOWARD THE NW GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF 96W. A 1024 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N72W EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT ACROSS THE GULF E OF 96W. DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA IS NEAR THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW TO 20N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS HONDURAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CONVECTION FREE WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OF A DECAYED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NNE TO BERMUDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N60W TO 20N69W ...AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 27N71W. NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT DUE TO DRY AIR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 18N56W THAT IS BEING LEFT BEHIND BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N39W AND DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 50W N OF 20N. OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR