000 AXNT20 KNHC 280602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HANNA DISSIPATED. BY 0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE BEING ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N 84.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER HONDURAS...NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND YUCATAN BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW/REMNANTS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST AT 4 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 23W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE HOVMOLLER OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VERY WEAK SIGNAL OF THIS WAVE. SSMI TPW AND GOES-R AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DRY MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THUS VANISHING THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N65W TO 9N66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS IN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THAT IS KEEPING THE WAVE DEVOID OF CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N32W TO 6N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N E OF 15W AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 19W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING AN AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THUS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING IN THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 31N73W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...WHICH SUSTAINS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE FROM THE S-SE IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER AND EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HONDURAS...NORTHERN NICARAGUA AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN BASIN S OF 20N W OF 80W. FARTHER EAST...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W...SW ACROSS THE ISLAND TO EASTERN JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER-LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN E OF 64W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE WESTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IT BECOMING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HISPANIOLA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W...SW ACROSS THE ISLAND TO EASTERN JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER-LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THIS THROUGHINESS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N58W SW TO 26N73W AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N61W SW TO NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-27N AND FROM 18N-20N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC N OF 20N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W...WHICH IS EXPECTED STALL THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR