000 AXNT20 KNHC 271753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM HANNA DEVELOPED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 83.5W AT 27/1800 UTC OR 52 NM N OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...OR 22 NM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH TUESDAY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W INCLUDING E HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT4 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 8N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH SSMI TPW SHOWING HIGH MOISTURE S OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N54W TO 9N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N62W TO 10N62W...DRIFTING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE AT 54W IS BEGINNING TO SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N30W TO 8N40W TO 9N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF AND FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W IS PROVIDING E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE NW GULF. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN ACROSS THE GULF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO 18N81W...BETWEEN DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 16N86W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ENE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HANNA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ALONG 67W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS IN THE W ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N66W TO 28N73W MOVING SE. DRY AIR IS PREVENTING CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N64W AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AT 25N64W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 100NM OF THE FRONT E OF 66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 66W. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 29N40W. FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SOME OF THE CONVECTION FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE TUESDAY. 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