000 AXNT20 KNHC 270603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 17W. A HOVMOLLER OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS AN UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS FROM DAKAR...SENEGAL SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE 700 MB WIND AND STREAMFUNCTION ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY ALSO DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGITUDE. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N E OF 22W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N51W TO 6N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 49W-54W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 7N61W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ENTERING A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THAT IS KEEPING CONVECTION MINIMAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 54W-62W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W TO 8N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 27W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THUS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING IN THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH S OF PENSACOLA NEAR 29N86W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...WHICH SUSTAINS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE VARIABLE IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN CUBA. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE IS ANCHORED NE OF NICARAGUA AND COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND PATTERN ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE SW N ATLC AND ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA...WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 18N75W TO 18N81W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N82W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM N-NW OF THE FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDING TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER A DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN MAINTAINS THE REGION DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW BASIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE EXTENDING TO NORTHERN CUBA. THROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N60W SW TO 24N65W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W THEN INTO NW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N38W...WHICH IS EXPECTED STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR