000 AXNT20 KNHC 262321 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 18N49W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 46W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N58W TO 8N60W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 54W-61W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 8N40W TO 8N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS AT 28N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO NORTH CAROLINA... AND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE E TO 86W... RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SW TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N- 20N BETWEEN 69W-74W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO TO THE E TIP OF CUBA AT 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION AND DISSIPATING. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA