000 AXNT20 KNHC 260534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITHIN 60 NM OF A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N68W AND WITHIN 75 NM SE OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W. SEE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 26/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N46W TO 8N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 40W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 8N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N- 14N BETWEEN 55W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N75W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W 7N39W TO 9N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22N- 30W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE S GULF/E BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN N-NW TO OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN REACHING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUN NIGHT THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0300 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W ALONG 18N82W TO 15N83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS JUST TO THE SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 16N82W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W LEAVING THAT AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE W-NW AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE W CARIBBEAN/W ATLC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW...IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...NEAR 28N68W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW NE TO BEYOND 31N63W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NE OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 24N27W ALONG 21N46W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO 15N60W. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 28N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N40W. THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF AREA SUN NIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE BEHIND EXITING LOW. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 32N61W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY MON NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SE AND DISSIPATING TUE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO OFF THE SE CONUS COAST MON AND SLIDE NE ACROSS W ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW