000 AXNT20 KNHC 251155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 75 NM NW OF A 1006 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING W FROM THE LOW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 8N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 7N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 45W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N21W TO 7N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO 6N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W- 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS E GEORGIA INTO THE N GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N89W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS COVERING THE GULF. LINGERING LOW/MID MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT S OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF ON SUN REACHING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUN NIGHT AND LIFTING E OF THE AREA ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 16N80W INCLUDING JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND ANCHORED NEAR 16N83W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E BEFORE STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 17N81W EARLY SUN THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON AND TUE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR HAITI EARLY SUN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND SUN THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW...IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE... CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N58W ALONG 28N62W 27N70W TO THE SAME 1006 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 280 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 68W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 23N37W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 29N30W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED NW OF THE AZORES. THE 1006 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY THEN WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 28N65W TO HAITI LATE SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW