000 AXNT20 KNHC 210604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W 24N98W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 20/2215 UTC...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND IN MADEIRA TO THE WEST OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N19W TO 10N30W 7N40W AND 10N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK... KATP...AND AT KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT PERRY FLORIDA. NAPLES FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE- TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A 68W/69W RIDGE. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PUSH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 28N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N77W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W 23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 29N70W 29N81W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W... TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N44W... AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 20N38W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD...FROM 40W EASTWARD. TO 24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N20W AND 20N28W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N28W TO 21N34W AND 30N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT