000 AXNT20 KNHC 191750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 49.0N 47.3W AT 19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUST TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 49N-54N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N39W TO 4N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 36W-46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICA WAVE AT 6N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N98W TO 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 92W-98W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AND SPREAD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N- 22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONGTHE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER CUBA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND MON WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N56W MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N54W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N- 29N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A 1003 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 21N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA