000 AXNT20 KNHC 191146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 47.6N 50.1W AT 19/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 104 NM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 46N BETWEEN 48W-56W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N34W TO 14N39W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N18W 9N19W 6N23W 6N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N23W TO 00N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO JUST S OF THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. THERE IS STILL NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO JUST S OF MATAMORES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 22N94W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY THIS WEEK AND DRIFT E. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO 80W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N W OF 78W TO THE YUCATAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W- 69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 12N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND TO THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS GENERATING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA W FLOW ALOFT STARTING EARLY MON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE GONZALO HAS MOVING PAST NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUST N OF CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W- 74W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 24N74W AND SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N52W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N49W ALONG 25N52W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N56W TO 20N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N48W 29N53W TO 26N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE BROAD CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N62W TO 33N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 20N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 32N19W ALONG 25N23W TO 23N30W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 14W-19W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 24W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW