000 AXNT20 KNHC 181751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W- 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO 28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA