000 AXNT20 KNHC 181150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 35.9N 62.7W AT 18/1200 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 235 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 782 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN 61W-66W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 10N30W TO E OF THE TROPICAL NEAR 7N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W INCLUDING THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE BAY W OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN TO 78W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN. THIS UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W. NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SW HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS GONZALO EXTENDING FROM 28N63W ALONG 24N70W TO 22N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W DIPPING S ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-74W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N W OF 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 22N50W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N51W 17N55W TO 15N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 39W-52W AND FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 39W-47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG 30N30W TO 29N35W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 12N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N30W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON. 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