000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 63.9W AT 18/0600 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 87 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. THE EYE OF GONZALO PASSED OVER BERMUDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 32N-37N BETWEEN 60W-66W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 4N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS MERGING WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 30W- 39W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W TO 7N24W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N27W TO 8N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 10W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 23W-25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS DIPPING S OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 88W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N ACROSS THE BAY AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA E OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W. NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING ACROSS BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A TRAILING BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 31N61W TO 25N62W AND FROM 24N70W TO 22N76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W DIPPING S ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR N OF 24N BETWEEN 66W-75W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N51W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 21N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 17N46W TO 13N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 40W-53W AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 18N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 30N32W TO 29N39W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 13N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N31W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW