000 AXNT20 KNHC 161204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 25.5N 68.7W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 456 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 120 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 13N50W AND 13N55W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N43W TO 16N50W TO 10N55W...TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W 10N20W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W...TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH GEORGIA...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES... AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO 27N78W 24N83W 24N90W 22N98W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 23N88W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 23N88W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 22N93W...AND TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N74W 30N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W 26N76W 23N81W 22N90W...INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N75W 26N77W 24N81W 22N87W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN PARTS OF BELIZE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1016 MB...WITH HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUING ITS NORTHWARD TRACK. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.93 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN PANAMA...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 67W WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL HISPANIOLA-TO-GULF OF URABA TROUGH ALSO PASSES RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF 9N85W 3N79W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH IS ALONG 20N67W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE WATERS THAT ARE AROUND HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH REMAINS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N40W...CURVING TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N48W...AND CONTINUING TO 20N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 28N30W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N45W...TO 22N52W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 22N52W TO 22N58W AND 25N62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE THAT IS AROUND THE 26N48W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N22W 27N27W 26N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 25N30W 20N47W 20N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N21W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N...INCLUDING IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N18W...TO 19N30W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N34W. A SECOND RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N60W. THIS RIDGE PASSES BETWEEN THE AREA OF THE 32N24W 25N62W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HURRICANE GONZALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT