000 AXNT20 KNHC 152350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR 24.4N 68.7W OR ABOUT 513 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA...INTO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 11N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW FL COAST NEAR 26N82W TO NEAR 23N88W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN GULF SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WITHIN 150 NM ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTS...SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 26N98W. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE FL STRAITS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THURSDAY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AT 18N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LAND OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N TO 21N W OF 83W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW BASIN IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE GULF. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 18N75W ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CENTERED ABOUT 230 NM NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS COAST TO 31N79W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 27N40W TO 24N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS COLD FRONT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N45W. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER IS EAST OF THIS LOW FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LOW FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTION INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND S BAHAMAS. THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO