000 AXNT20 KNHC 151808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 15/1800 UTC IS NEAR 23.8N 68.3W OR ABOUT 542 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 65W-70W. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC/AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N16W IN THE FAR E ATLC. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N25W TO 9N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 16W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W AND THEN ALONG 24N85W TO 22N88W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WHICH ALONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SW ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...SHALLOW MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL BASIN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE NW BASIN...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 82W. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDES VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW BASIN THU TO FRI MORNING AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE LATER THAT DAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF HAITI ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SW COAST AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CENTERED NEAR 230 NM E-NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER WEST IN THE SW N ATLC...A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 77W. IN THE CENTRAL BASIN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N33W TO 26N42W TO 24N49W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 39W-49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR