000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 67.0W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 595 NM TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES 11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... .COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 23N90W TO 18N94W. S OF 19.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N36W 29N39W 25N55W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 41W...SW TO W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL...EXCEPT 12 TO 17 FT W OF 37W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N18W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 7N27W 9N35W AND 12N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM THE TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM MISSOURI EASTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGRY...KIPN... AND KVOA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING THE AREA FROM TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED EARLIER AT SARASOTA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC..FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHERN HAITI. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N87W... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHERN HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE OBSERVED IN BARAHONA AT 15/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W...THROUGH 30N37W 29N40W 26N50W TO 25N54W. THIS IS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONT THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE-FORCE WIND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N23W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC..FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT