000 AXNT20 KNHC 132340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF THE NOW HURRICANE GONZALO IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.9W AT 13/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF ST MARTIN...OR ABOUT 750 NM E OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 20N49W TO 13N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 06N14W TO 07N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 06N32W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 11N50W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA MAINLY E OF 18W AND FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 28N96W TO 29N99W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AND EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE CONUS REACHING THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 28N. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS NOTICED MAINLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE GONZALO IS APPROACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SUPPORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH OVER HONDURAS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT HURRICANE GONZALO TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NW-NNW. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N51W AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF TROPICAL STORM FAY EXTENDING FROM 30N51W TO 26N58W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E WHILE THE TROPICAL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA