000 AXNT20 KNHC 131157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 34.3N 55.3W AT 13/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 490 NM ENE OF BERMUDA MOVING E AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF FAY FROM 34N TO 38N BETWEEN 50W TO 55W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 61.5W AT 13/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 43 NM N OF GUADELOUPE AND 17 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 20N45W TO 9N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE WAVE NOW WEST OF THE LOW. MOST CONVECTION IS NOW WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N14W AND CONTINUES TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N23W TO 9N38W AND THEN FROM 11N47W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS CROSSING TX. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE E CONUS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE NW GULF. SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE REST OF THE BASIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE E GULF THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER TX WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N89W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE SW OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTH OF 13N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST FROM GONZALO. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM FAY AND GONZALO CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. DEEP MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF TROPICAL STORM FAY FROM 31N54W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAY TO 31N61W TO 30N66W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 14N42W IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 31N29W AND IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N AND EAST OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS GONZALO WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 31N WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO