000 AXNT20 KNHC 130555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FAY HAS WEAKENED FROM A HURRICANE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS CENTERED NEAR 34.1N 58.2W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 350 NM ENE OF BERMUDA MOVING E AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 39N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 60.6W AT 03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE AND 75 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 20N43W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE WELL WITH HIGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 10N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS ALONG 10N26W TO 9N37W AND THEN FROM 13N48W TO 10N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF IS PRODUCING W TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF IS PRODUCING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW GULF ARE REPORTING 25 KT SE WINDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND NW GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW GULF. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...W CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W WEST INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. GONZALO WILL THEN MOVE WNW TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST WELL REMOVED FROM GONZALO. THE MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM FAY AND GONZALO CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CIRCULATION OF GONZALO NEAR 17N58W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W TO 72W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN CONUS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR 32N32W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N AND EAST OF 60W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS GONZALO WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 31N WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO