000 AXNT20 KNHC 122348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...FAY BECAME A HURRICANE BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON. ITS CENTER IS NEAR 34.7N/60.7W...AT ABOUT 250 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND ITS MOVING ENE AT ABOUT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 33N-39N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-40N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS STRENGHTENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ITS CENTER IS NEAR 16.4N/59.5W AS OF 2100 UTC AND ITS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AFFECTING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N42W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N43W TO 10N43W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 33W-41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES TO 09N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 09N31W THEN BEGINS AGAIN FROM 10N46W TO 07N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 23W-32W AND FROM 46W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SE TO OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NW ALABAMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLANTIC GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE BASIN...ONE EXTENDING ALONG 93W BETWEEN 19N-24N AND ANOTHER ONE E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 25N85W INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 85W-87W. CALM WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH THE NW GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENHANCING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS BASIN IS T.S. GONZALO WHICH IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA MAINLY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND ENHANCED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM THIS ACTIVITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT S OF 15N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ELSEWHERE...CALM WEATHER PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN NW NEAR PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING. T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN NW NEAR PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 32N75W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N76W EXTENDING AN AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THIS HIGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N53W PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO PREVAILING UNDERNEATH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 28N13W TO 27N29W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. T.S. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN NW NEAR PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA