000 AXNT20 KNHC 121047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 64.6W AT 12/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 11 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA...MOVING N-NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10 KT. HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N OF 17N WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME DUST ARE DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N- 17N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS MEDIUM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N38W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 6N39W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...EXCEPT FOR THE NW ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N41W TO 2N49W. SEE WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N86W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DOMINATE ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...THUS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT N OF 21N. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. ASCAT DATA DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N85W TO 14N87W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BANKING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG SE MEXICAN COAST ENHANCES HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST S OF 23N. A COLD FRONT STARTS TO ENTER THE NW BASIN ALONG 29N92W TO 27N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SW BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 16N82W SE TO 12N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 86W SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SW CUBA AS WELL IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF. ANOTHER SURFACE THROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ENHANCES SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE NE HISPANIOLA BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...WHICH CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING IS WEST AND EAST OF FAY IN THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 30N11W TO 27N20W TO 27N27W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR