000 AXNT20 KNHC 120604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 65.0W AT 12/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 84 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS NEAR BERMUDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA ON SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N-NE OF THE STORM CENTER FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 64W-69W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N OF 17N WHERE DRY AIR AND DUST IS DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS MEDIUM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N36W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N39W TO 8N40W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-19N BETWEEN 27W-44W. SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE N-NW SIDE OF THE WAVE IS OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...REGION CURRENTLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N42W TO 5N52W. SEE WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED W OF GUATEMALA EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...THUS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT N OF 23N. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W- 86W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NW BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEING ANCHORED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SW BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 17N83W SE TO 12N72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CUBA AND OFFSHORE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...WHICH CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING IS WEST AND EAST OF FAY IN THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 30N14W TO 28N21W TO 27N27W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR