000 AXNT20 KNHC 112342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 65.4W AT 11/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 65W-69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF FAY FROM 28N-38N BETWEEN 52W-62W SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS AT AROUND 350 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO 13N54W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THESE WAVE/LOW AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 54W-55W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OF THIS SYSTEM IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N35W TO 07N39W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 38W-41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N14W AND CONTINUES TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N21W TO 09N29W TO 11N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH CENTER NEAR 25N87W. THIS SYSTEM PAIRED WITH A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER E GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF 93W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. SURFACE E WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO TO DISSIPATE N OF THE GULF WATERS BUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE NW GULF WATERS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT TO THE SE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF CUBA AND EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ONLY AFFECTING THEIR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N- 16N BETWEEN 80W-83W SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SURFACE E WINDS OF 10 KTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND...BUT WEAKENING RAPIDLY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING W OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 78W-80W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 29N30W TO A 1001 LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N11W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA