000 AXNT20 KNHC 111756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 65.3W AT 11/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 65W-69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF FAY N OF 24N BETWEEN 56W-62W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N34W TO 6N37W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AIRMASS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN 27W-41W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 16N55W TO 12N54W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N- 18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 10N25W TO 9N30W TO 11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE...AND A SURFACE LOW AT 7N44W...FROM 6N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N95W TO 17N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 94W- 98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N86W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE N OF THE GULF...FOR SOME CONVECTION TO ADVECT TO THE SE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND FOR CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N85W TO 19N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO 31N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA