000 AXNT20 KNHC 110605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 64.5W AT 11/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 350 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 65W-69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF FAY N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-62W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N31W TO 9N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS HIGH MOISTURE AIRMASS AND IT COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N60W TO 9N61W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WAVE IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 85W... MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N37W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 22W-32W AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N84W. EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW GULF ALONG WITH A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N E OF 94W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W...INCLUDING OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CUBA...JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW HISPANIOLA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NE CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SW REGION OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N53W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-58W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR