000 AXNT20 KNHC 101820 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 ...CORRECTION TO SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 64.0W AT 10/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 485 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 64W- 67W. CONVECTION FURTHER N AND E IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE. SEE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 16N31W TO 6N32W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 23N AND 35N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N52W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 14N52W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N82W TO 9N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N18W TO 14N29W AND THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N33W AND CONTINUES TO 6N39W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS/N MEXICO NEAR 26N98W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND OFF SHORE WATERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO OVER THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF T.D. SEVEN NEAR 26N55W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 57W-67W AND WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W TO 25N58W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES EAST OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO/WALLACE