000 AXNT20 KNHC 101044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N65W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 57W-61W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 16N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 28N- 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 18N51W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 13N51W TO 6N51W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO 10N81W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 79W-87W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 9N24W TO 5N34W TO 7N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N41W TO 9N50W. THE ITCS RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N53W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W. 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER NE HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SPECIAL FEATURE IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. AT 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO 29N78W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N20W TO 25N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA