000 AXNT20 KNHC 100605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N62W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N64W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING N-NW AT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 57W-63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 16N29W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N29W TO 7N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 26W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 26N-30N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 46W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 53W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N75W TO 19N76W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N- 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 11N22W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 12N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N31W TO 6N34W TO 5N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 81W-84W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SPECIAL FEATURE IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 27N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA