000 AXNT20 KNHC 090605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 13N50W 6N51W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N69W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 21N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N92W IN MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE AREA OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N94W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG ARE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 7N29W AND 8N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N34W TO 11N40W AND 11N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH IS NEAR 26N84W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH IS NEAR 22N93W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 420 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE SAME BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...TO A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N94W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG ARE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KOPM. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AND PERRY FLORIDA...AND 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N61W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N59W AND TO MARTINIQUE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A 21N61W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WIND FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...TO A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N98W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT