000 AXNT20 KNHC 081109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W 11N43W 6N45W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N44W 16N46W 18N48W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N63W 14N64W 10N65W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MERGING WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD FOR ABOUT 210 NM. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N88W AT THE COAST OF BELIZE...ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN HONDURAS AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...TO 7N91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...TO 10N20W 7N31W 8N40W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W 23N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 420 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMDJ. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO ALICE AND THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. VICTORIA TEXAS HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM CROSS CITY WESTWARD. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11.5N 81.5W. THE LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N NORTHWARD...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA TO HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN A CIRCULAR PATTERN FROM 14N80W TO 13N83W...ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...TO 10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 13N ALONG THE COASTS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N78W... TO 7N81W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT NOW IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. IT IS COMING FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N57W 17N57W TO 13N59W NEAR BARBADOS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 30N60W 24N70W 21N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N28W 24N35W AND 24N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N13W TO 30N32W BEYOND 32N37W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT