000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W 12N43W 7N45W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W 14N63W 10N64W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MERGING WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD FOR ABOUT 210 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N87W...ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...TO 7N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO WESTERN COASTAL EL SALVADOR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W 9N18W 5N30W AND 8N41W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 22N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS IN FALFURRIAS AND ALICE... AND IN BAY CITY. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N82W. THE LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 70 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N NORTHWARD...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA TO HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W WESTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N82W FROM THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS...TO 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N78W...BEYOND THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND THE ALONG THE VENEZUELA BORDER FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT NOW IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. IT IS COMING FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N57W...TO 18N56W AND 14N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 30N60W 24N70W 21N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N28W 24N35W AND 24N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 46W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT