000 AXNT20 KNHC 080003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N17W TO 5N17W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND COINCIDES WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 3N-13N E OF 26W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N39W TO 7N43W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS WEST OF THE AXIS WHERE ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 160 NM FROM 7N-15N. EAST OF THE AXIS HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N W OF 36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N60W TO 10N62W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO 7N23W 7N33W TO 8N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N- 15N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...THE FAR W ATLC WATERS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG A TONGUE OF MODERATE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 88W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 17N94W THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W EXTENDS SW INTO THE N AND E GULF...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND OF 5- 10 KT N OF 22N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU...HOWEVER LIFTING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E-SE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N81W. THIS LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE. HIGH MOISTURE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE SE BASIN INHIBITS CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL-EASTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 20 KT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W- 82W. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE. THE LOW IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 20-24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE CENTRAL BASIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 24N W OF 74W BEING SUPPORTED BY PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 21N56W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N62W TO THE LOW TO 15N51W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 48W-57W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 21N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR