000 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N41W TO 10N42W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW IS DISPLACING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 12N60W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 16N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ONSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS FROM 15N85W IN S HONDURAS...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...TO 9N25W TO 9N40W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND FORCED ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND ACROSS THE E GULF FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW GULF. S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N82W AT THE EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FORM PANAMA N TO 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LOW AND A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ALSO OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14 TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS COVER THE BASIN...WITH AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EAST CARIBBEAN WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ASCENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N57W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW STACKED NEARLY OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO 26N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE WEST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SE CONUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO