000 AXNT20 KNHC 071101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N40W 13N39W 9N38W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N38W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N56W 19N57W 12N58W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N51W 22N53W 19N53W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTAL WATERS/ COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N20W 8N30W AND 7N42W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W MOST PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 22N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 22N77W...ALL OF FLORIDA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N88W 26N91W 24N94W 24N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N86W 22N90W 20N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX...KVAF... KEMK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KVOA...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AT EDINBURG AND AT WESLACO...FROM BAY CITY AND VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA TO CORPUS CHRISTI AND TO FALFURRIAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE IN TEXAS FROM ANGLETON/ LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W...SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 17N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 17N EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AROUND THE 17N58W CYCLONIC CENTER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W... ALONG 10N BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 82W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTAL WATERS/ COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AT 06/2045 UTC...THAT WAS ALONG 19N70W IN THE INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. IT WILL DISSIPATED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND LATER EVEN NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N56W 19N57W 12N58W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N51W 22N53W 19N53W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT