000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N37W TO 9N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VARIOUS GOES-R PRODUCTS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-39W. IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N52W TO 10N56W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W AND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 47W-56W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N76W TO 4N79W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A MIDDLE- LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO 7N28W TO 6N37W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N38W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N46W TO 11N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-36W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM SENEGAL TO NORTHERN LIBERIA EXTENDING 40 NM OFF THE COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL- SOUTHERN GULF. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE W AND SE GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-95W AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 40N66W EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE GULF AND PROVIDE E-SE WIND OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH LIFTING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 19N W OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THAT REGION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E-SE OF PUERTO RICO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THAT REGION AS WELL AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER NORTHERN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER HAZY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE. ...HISPANIOLA... NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL- SOUTHERN GULF TO SUPPORT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N67W TO 25N74W TO 22N81W. SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A 1014 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N60W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 22N61W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS