000 AXNT20 KNHC 061107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W...TO 17N80W...TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N76W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W IN WESTERN GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N20W 6N28W AND 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N70W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SIDE COAST OF CUBA THAT IS NEAR 23N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 26N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W 26N73W 23N79W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N...AND EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 26N76W 25N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KGVX... KVAF...KATP...KGRY...KGBK...AND KDLP. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT LOCATIONS THAT ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM PALACIOS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 15N61W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN BETWEEN 56W AND 67W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N77W AND 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N81W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W IN VENEZUELA AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO AND 85W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N76W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF PARTS OF HISPANIOLA WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING NEAR 29N62W. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 25N61W AND 25N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N52W AND 22N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT