000 AXNT20 KNHC 060604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 13N54W 9N55W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W IN GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 13N17W 7N30W AND 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N42W AND 9N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W. STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N17W...6N11W...AND 10N14W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N70W...TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SIDE COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 26N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W 28N70W 25N76W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 27N75W 27N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KXIH... KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 15N61W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 17N77W AND 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 662W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N81W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT THIS MOMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF PARTS OF HISPANIOLA WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N61W. THIS CENTER SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 25N61W AND 25N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N52W AND 22N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT