000 AXNT20 KNHC 060004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N30W TO 11N29W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE AT THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS WHILE THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. GOES-R IMAGERY ALSO SHOW DUST MOVING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WAVE. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE CONTINUES IN A STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REGION WHICH IS INFLUENCING TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 550 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N50W TO 9N53W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE DEPICTED IN GOES-R AND METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N76W TO 9N78W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW BASIN...THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 13N16W TO 06N25W TO 06N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N41W TO 8N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N- 08N BETWEEN 20W-28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 30W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL- SOUTHERN GULF TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N87W TO 24N91W TO 24N95W. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER SOUTHERN BASIN GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 80W-94W. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. N-NE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE 5- 10 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL UNTIL DISSIPATION ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND A PORTION OF THE NW BASIN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE N-NE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-78W. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TUESDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY/DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL- SOUTHERN GULF TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N69W TO 24N76W 22N80W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FARTHER EAST...A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N62W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 24N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEARBY THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 69W-75W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N50W TO 25N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N39W TO 22N42W AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS