000 AXNT20 KNHC 051805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 250 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N29W TO 11N29W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DUE TO A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILING. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THIS MAP TO BE AT AROUND 600 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N50W TO 09N51W. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUT WAS CHANGED AFTER ANALYZING MULTI-DAY SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 49W-53W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N75W TO 11N75W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. A COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS AND A DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE IS KEEPING THIS AREA CONVECTION FREE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N87W TO 09N87W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION JUST TO THE PORTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 14N17W TO 08N21W TO 09N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 09N35W TO 09N40W TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N E OF 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 32W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 23N THAT EXTENDS TO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST FROM 23N86W TO 22N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 KT IS N OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL UNTIL DISSIPATION BY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY/DUSTY AIRMASS WHICH IS KEEPING THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES CONVECTION FREE. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT S OF 12N...WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A DRY/DUSTY AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN US EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF WATERS TO THE ATLANTIC FROM 24N79W TO 35N67W TO A 1000 MB LOW OVER MAINE NEAR 46N69W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE E OF THIS FRONT...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 29N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE N FROM 29N64W TO 27N57W TO 32N50W TO 42N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 160 NM S AND W OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N41W TO 27N36W. THIS FEATURE IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N42W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ALONG 30N76W SW ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N W OF 74W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 50W- 60W SUPPORT A SECOND COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 30N51W TO 27N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N62W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 32W-39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA