000 AXNT20 KNHC 051113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N29W 17N28W 11N26W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GOES-R SEVIRI IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME DUST MOVING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS IN A STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REGION WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THE TIME. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG DEVELOPED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IT ALREADY HAS WEAKENED/DISSIPATED...DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. A CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N87W IN NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS...THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 9N90W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 82W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N90W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N30W 10N34W AND 10N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N39W TO 10N44W AND 11N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N47W 12N49W 10N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS... TO 23N90W AND 23N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N97W TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N70W 26N77W 23N85W 23N92W 21N97W...AND FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. THE PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...25N77W...TO 24N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... 23N98W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CLOUDINESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMZG AND KBQX. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 18N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD HISPANIOLA...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N76W IN THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG DEVELOPED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IT ALREADY HAS WEAKENED/DISSIPATED... DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.22 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...THROUGH PANAMA...AND BEYOND WESTERN SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 18N61W CYCLONIC CENTER REACHES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE 71W/72W RIDGE IS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MORE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 19N76W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE 19N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH...AND REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRING SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 31N53W. A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N64W AND 24N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W...AND IT CURVES TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N65W TO 24N70W AND 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 64W...AND FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N42W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N39W 26N41W 21N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N34W AND 20N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT