000 AXNT20 KNHC 041744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N67W TO 9N68W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS N OF 15N ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N80W TO 10N80W...MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE S OF 13N AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED N OF 13N ALONG THE WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 13N17W TO 10N20W TO 9N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N31W AND EXTENDS TO 9N50W TO 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N88W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5- 10 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF AND 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW OVER CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OTHER THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT FROM W CUBA E TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BANES CUBA TO BARBUDA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY S OF 14 N ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY AFFECT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY SAHARAN AIR. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 30N81W TO 31N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W TO 28N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM 28N56W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF BOTH THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND THIS COLD FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N39W TO 31N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT NEAR N FL WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO S FL WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E ALONG WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO